Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Gaming market research firm DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This impressive prediction surpasses all competitors. Let's delve into the details of this forecast.

Dominating the Market: 80 Million Units by 2028

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, labels the Switch 2 the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. Nintendo is predicted to lead the console market, outpacing Microsoft and Sony. This dominance is attributed to the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and limited initial competition. The report projects sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, soaring to over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests Nintendo may face manufacturing challenges meeting this high demand.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in earlier stages of development. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring a surprise 2026 release from a competitor) positions it for sustained market leadership. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.

Nintendo's Switch is already experiencing record-breaking success. Circana (formerly NPD) reported that lifetime Switch sales in the US have surpassed those of the PlayStation 2. Mat Piscatella, Circana's executive director and analyst, announced on BlueSky that the Switch, with 46.6 million units sold, is now the second best-selling console in US history, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy, considering the Switch's reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

A Resurgent Gaming Industry

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive outlook for the gaming industry. David Cole, DFC Intelligence's founder and CEO, states that after a two-year downturn, the industry is poised for robust growth through the end of the decade, having expanded more than 20 times over the past three decades. 2025 is anticipated to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new product releases. In addition to the Switch 2, the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI is slated for a 2025 release, further boosting overall sales.

The gaming audience is projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of "high-end gaming-on-the-go" via portable systems increases accessibility, while esports and gaming influencers drive hardware purchases across PC and consoles.